Short and Long Term Forecast for Lightning Strikes and Casualties in Miami, USA

Lightning is the leading cause of death by natural phenomena, much more than cyclones. In the following research, a modeling of the number of people who have been struck by lightning in Miami, USA and the number of victims by this cause, during the period from 2007 to 2017 was performed; in addition, a short-term forecast and a long-term forecast up to 2030 were made using the methodology of Regressive Objective Regression (ROR), which is able to explain variance beyond white noise. The trend of the number of victims was increasing in 1 case, significant at 95 %. As for people struck by lightning, the trend was negative and not significant, so there is a high correlation between those struck by lightning and the risk of death, for a value of 78.4 %. The purpose of this prognosis is to alert health agencies and entities linked to climate monitoring in the USA so that they can take preventive measures in risk areas to try to reduce, and if possible, to reduce the number of deaths caused by lightning strikes.

Keywords:Fatalities; Miami; Forecasts; Lightning; ROR Regression