What Does “One-Source of Truth” Imply in Business Strategy & Forecasting and Why Does it Matter?

In the pharmaceutical world, market research & forecasting holds an important role and function in the central decisionmaking process. Typically, this function resides in the commercial excellence or business excellence function. There might be a global function and a local function which is responsible for the forecasting role. Market research & Forecasting is a critical function and influences many other functional areas within an organization. The cross functional relationships reflect the various uses to which a forecast outputs can be applied such as R& D forecasting, pipeline planning, revenue planning, sample and free goods, safety stock, supply & production planning, resource and budget allocation, project prioritization, partnering decisions, compensation plans, market access efforts etc. These varied uses, and the effect of forecasting on many functional areas in an organization, reflect the first major challenge of forecasting – meeting the needs of varied and diverse stakeholders. One shouldn’t create a single number forecast: if there’s variability due to lack of data then this needs to be shown either through sensitivity analysis or by creating a probability-based forecast. Any forecast, no matter what the market, is an estimate that will inevitably include inaccuracy. It’s a means of understanding both the risk and the potential of an investment. Therefore, it is essential that those who are basing their decision on the forecast understand both the range and the underlying drivers [1].