An Untangling of Global Corona Pandemics

In this article, we untangle the mystic of globally scaring corona virus (also, recognized as COVID 19). For this purpose, we define and utilize the index of dispersion to construct a new methodology based on the corona incidence rate, θ and a restriction parameter, β via an incidence rate restricted Poisson (IRRP) model for the data analysis. The IRRP model was introduced by Shanmugam [1] for another purpose and it is found to be quite suitable to understand the mystic nature of non- quantifiable restriction(s) imposed on the corona exposure/treatment in China and everywhere in the world as it appears. The publicly available [2] corona data as of 27 February 2020 in the World Health Organization’s (WHO) web page are analyzed and interpreted in this article. In specific, the new methodology detects non-trivial patterns not only in corona incidences but also in the restrictions imposed to deal with the pandemic like this corona virus and this discovery would have been obscured otherwise. The healthcare policies with respect to corona incidences should be congruent to much needed restrictions such preventive hygienic practices as minimal necessities but can go as far as isolation in quarantines as the data evidences enlisted in this article are providing a strong support for them.

Keywords: Incidence Rate; Index of Dispersion; Poisson Distribution; Odds Ratio; Restriction Level; Reduction Level; Tail Value at Risk; Vulnerability.