Spatial Distribution and Ecological Niche Modelling of Some Potential Vectors Involved in the Transmission of Buruli Ulcer in Benin (West Africa)

Buruli Ulcer (BU) is an infectious disease caused by a pathogen, Mycobacterium ulcerans. This mycobacterium is responsible for severe necrosis of subcutaneous tissue leading to chronic ulcers and wounds. However, the distribution of potential reservoirs of this mycobacterium, which is necessary for an effective dynamics control, remains poorly known in Benin. This study aims to model the spread of BU infection risk in Benin. The methodological approach focused on data collection, processing and analysis. Indeed, two data sources were used in the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) software to model the spatial distribution of some families of Mycobacterium ulcerans vectors. These are present and future bioclimatic data (scenarios rcp 45 and rcp 85) downloaded from http://webfiles.york.ac.uk/KITE/AfriClim/ and occurrences (234) of the disease from fieldwork and literature. Potential vectors inventoried in the field are aquatic bugs of the family Belostomatidae and Naucoridae and worms whose taxa were not specified. The areas at risk of this disease in the present as well as in the future, globally include the South to the Center Benin and parts of the North-West and North-East of the country. The various results obtained are valuable for prevention and better management of patients. To this end, it will be necessary to focus attention and strengthen control interventions in areas at present and future risk of the disease.

Keywords:Buruli ulcer; Risk map; Modeling; Mycobacterium ulcerans; Benin

Abbreviations: BU: Buruli Ulcer; MU: Mycobacterium ulcerans; ROC: Receiver Operating Characteristic; AUC: Area Under Curve (AUC); GBIF: Global Biodiversity Information and Facility