Mini Review

Agent-Based Simulation Models of Natural Disaster Evacuation Behaviour

John A Black*

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Australia

Corresponding Author

John A Black, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

Received Date: August 10, 2020;  Published Date: August 25, 2020

Abstract

This short review, drawing on the author’s experience as a researcher into evacuation behaviour caused by typhoons and coastal inundation and tsunamis and as a peer reviewer of a government task force into flood evacuation studies, considers the role of agent-based simulation models for emergency evacuations. Transport modellers conceptualise that peoples’ behavioural responses in four distinct stages: decision on whether to evacuate or not; departure time choice (if evacuating); destination choice; and route/transport mode choice. The modelling issue is the appropriate determination of the behavioural input parameters. Calibrated models on location-specific areas provide the basis for scenario analyses as demonstrated by a case study of a small town on Shikoku Island, Japan. The applications of emergency evacuation models to disaster management authorities and their role in stakeholder communication are discussed.