Climate Extremes Trends, Impacts, And Adaptation Strategies on the Potwar Plateau, Pakistan: A Review of Four Decades (1982-2023)

Climate extremes such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, wildfires, and intense precipitation have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, posing growing risks to human health, economies, and ecosystems [1,2]. Driven largely by anthropogenic climate change, these events are increasingly intense and interconnected. Between 1980 and 2021, the United States alone recorded over $1.537 trillion in damages and nearly 10,000 fatalities from climate- related disasters, with 2017 alone incurring a record-breaking $306 billion in losses [3,4]. Rising global temperatures, erratic rainfall, and expanding human vulnerability due to urbanization and unsustainable land use are exacerbating these risks, often triggering cascading hazards like heatwave-induced droughts and wildfires. This pattern is evident worldwide, including in northern Pakistan, where overlapping extremes challenge response efforts and threaten development [5,6].

The Potwar Plateau (PPP) of Pakistan, spanning 33.00º N to 36.00º N, is particularly vulnerable to these shifts. With a transitional climate ranging from semi-arid to humid, the region depends heavily on two rainfall systems [7]. The South Asian monsoon (July-September) and western disturbances (December-March). Yet rainfall remains highly variable, both spatially and temporally. Northern areas receive relatively stable winter precipitation, while central and southern parts experience frequent droughts. The plateau’s varied topography from hills to plains intensifies these disparities [8,9]. Higher elevations see more rainfall and moderate temperatures, whereas lower plains endure prolonged dry spells and higher heat stress. Monsoon rains are vital for rain-fed crops such as wheat, maize, and barley, but shifting rainfall patterns and rising temperatures have disrupted growing seasons, threatening water availability and food security [10,11].

Developing countries like Pakistan face disproportionate climate risks due to limited adaptive capacity, resource constraints, and dependence on climate-sensitive sectors [12,13]. As shown in Table 1, rising global emissions continue to intensify hazards. Table 2 illustrates how Pakistan, despite its minimal contribution to global emissions, experiences rising temperatures, recurring droughts, extreme floods, and rapid glacial retreat. Agriculture, which supports over two-thirds of the population, is increasingly affected by erratic rainfall, water scarcity, and pest outbreaks [14,15]. Rural and highland communities remain especially exposed due to fragile infrastructure and limited access to early warning systems and institutional support. These vulnerabilities underscore the urgency for integrated, climate-resilient strategies involving drought-tolerant crops, efficient irrigation, and adaptive planning [16].

Although numerous studies have assessed climate extremes in Pakistan, most focus on national or provincial levels, with limited attention to localized, long-term patterns in regions like the Potwar Plateau. There is a clear research gap in understanding how multi-decadal climate trends and cascading hazards affect local agriculture and livelihoods. Moreover, few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of adaptation strategies specific to this region’s topography and semi-arid conditions. This review addresses these gaps by synthesizing climate data and research from 1982-2023 to examine climate trends, impacts, and adaptation responses on the Potwar Plateau. It aims to support evidence-based policymaking and strengthen resilience in one of Pakistan’s most climate-sensitive landscapes.

Table 1:Greenhouse gases, concentration levels, atmospheric lifespan, and global warming potential

Table 2:List of Pakistan’s vulnerabilities to climate change.

This study adopts a two-pronged methodological approach
• a systematic literature review guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol, and
• a quantitative analysis of long-term climate variability across the Potwar Plateau Region (PPR) from 1982 to 2023.

Systematic Literature Review

To assess existing knowledge on climate extremes specifically their trends, impacts, and adaptation strategies a structured search was conducted across Google Scholar, Science Direct, and Web of Science, focusing on peer-reviewed literature published between 2010 and 2024. The search was restricted to English-language sources and emphasized studies relevant to the Potwar Plateau and comparable climate-sensitive regions [35, 36]. Following the PRISMA framework, the review process involved four phases: identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion Figure 1. An initial pool of 1,500 articles was retrieved using strategic Boolean combinations of terms such as “climate extremes”, “Potwar Plateau”, “drought”, “heatwave”, and “adaptation”. After excluding 730 irrelevant or duplicate records, 770 articles remained for title and abstract screening. Applying strict inclusion criteria such as methodological robustness, thematic relevance, and regional focus 445 studies were shortlisted for full-text evaluation [37]. Ultimately, 25 high-quality studies were selected for in-depth synthesis based on their direct empirical relevance to climate extremes in the PPR. Table 3 presents the inclusion and exclusion criteria, while Table 4 lists the keywords and search operators used. This systematic approach ensured a comprehensive, objective, and thematically coherent foundation for the review..

The initial search retrieved over 1,500 articles from the specified time frame. After filtering out 730 articles that did not meet the research criteria, 445 were reviewed for relevance to the study’s theme. Abstracts were further examined to ensure the selected papers addressed the trends, impacts, and adaptation strategies related to climate extremes. Twenty-five papers that offered significant insights into the subject matter were reviewed for the study. Table 3, lists the literature’s inclusion and exclusion criteria, and Table 4, lists the keywords and search terms used to find pertinent articles. Search terms were strategically combined using “AND” and “OR” operators to optimize search results, ensuring a comprehensive collection of articles aligned with the study’s focus.

Climate Trend Analysis (1982-2023)

To complement the literature review with empirical evidence, long-term climate trends in the PPR were statistically analysed over the 1982-2023 period. Both monotonic (gradual) and abrupt (step) changes were investigated using robust, non-parametric methods suitable for climatic time series. Monotonic trends were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test, a rank-based method effective for detecting non-linear trends in non-normally distributed data with missing values. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s slope estimator, which is resistant to outliers. To correct for serial correlation in the time series, we applied the iterative pre-whitening procedure developed by All statistical analyses were conducted in R using the trend, Kendall, and zyp packages.

To assess the homogeneity of precipitation data, the RHtestsV3 tool was used. A log-transformation of precipitation values improved the normality and stability of the tests, ensuring that detected changes represented genuine climate regime shifts. The field significance of spatial trends i.e., the regional coherence of local changes was evaluated via a Monte Carlo simulation approach. For each climate variable, 1,000 simulations were performed by randomly permuting the time series at each spatial grid point, preserving spatial autocorrelation. The observed distribution of Mann-Kendall Z-statistics was then compared to the simulated distributions. If the proportion of significant grid points in the observed dataset exceeded the 95th percentile of the simulated cases (p < 0.05), the trend was deemed field-significant.

Table 3:Criteria for including and excluding literature.

Table 4:Keywords for the literature identification..

Data

Monthly precipitation data from six meteorological stations, covering the period from 1982 to 2022, were acquired from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). These stations were chosen based on their geographical closeness to the Potwar Plateau and the availability of long-term records, as illustrated in detailed in Table 5. To analyze trends on an annual scale, the monthly precipitation values were aggregated, while average values were calculated for temperature data. The study primarily focused on examining precipitation and temperature patterns at each station, while also incorporating data from nearby stations to assess spatial variability and interstation correlations in precipitation.

Table 5:Stations list of Potwar plateau of Pakistan, Punjab.

In this review, twenty-five papers were discussed on climate change impacts in northern Pakistan, focusing on weather extremes, the trends affecting the region, and adaptation strategies. The literature highlights how changing weather patterns such as erratic rainfall, droughts, and rising temperatures are threatening agriculture, water resources, and local livelihoods. These impacts extend beyond the northern areas, affecting the entire country, with crops like wheat, rice, and maize experiencing reduced yields due to altered growing conditions. Adaptation strategies for farmers, such as climate-resilient crops, improved irrigation, and water conservation, are emphasized, alongside the need for policies that promote community-based solutions and enhance climate-related disaster resilience. Table 6, summarizes the important findings and perspectives from the examined studies.

Table 6:Literature cited for the study..

Trends in Annual Precipitation across the Potwar Plateau

Precipitation records from six meteorological stations Attock, Chakwal, Islamabad, Jhelum, Murree, and Rawalpindi between 1982 and 2023 reveal significant inter-annual variability, with a general upward trend emerging in recent years Figure 2. At Attock, rainfall peaked in 2021 following a decline between 1998 and 2005, subsequent fluctuations until 2015, and a steady increase thereafter. The linear regression model produced an R² value of 0.2733, indicating a weak positive trend. Chakwal displayed similar but less pronounced variability, with fluctuations over the study period and a modest increase by 2022 (R² = 0.122) [60]..

Islamabad followed a comparable trajectory, also peaking in 2021, with an R² of 0.1225, indicating a marginally positive trend. Jhelum exhibited a similar pattern, culminating in a 2021 maximum, with an R² value of 0.1079. Rawalpindi mirrored Islamabad’s trend, with a substantial rise in 2021 and an R² value of 0.1225, again indicating only a weak correlation. Overall, from 1982 to 2015, precipitation across the Potwar Plateau showed no consistent trend [61]. However, from 2015 onward, a sustained increase in annual rainfall is evident, culminating in anomalously high precipitation in 2021. These recent changes may reflect alterations in regional precipitation regimes potentially linked to broader climatic drivers [47, 62].

Temperature and Heatwave Trends in Northern Pakistan and the Potwar Plateau

Temperature trends from 1982 to 2023, based on data from the same six stations, were assessed using linear regression analysis Figure 3. Despite inter-annual fluctuations, temperature trends remained statistically insignificant, with a tendency toward marginal cooling. At Attock, annual mean temperatures ranged between 22.7°C and 25.7°C, with a regression slope of -0.016°C per year (R² = 0.0453), indicating a slight but statistically weak cooling trend. In Chakwal, the decline was 0.0029°C per year (R² = 0.0016), while Islamabad showed a decrease of 0.0071°C per year (R² = 0.0077). Jhelum recorded the smallest annual decrease at 0.0013°C (R² = 0.0003) [63].

Murree and Rawalpindi showed similar patterns, with declines of 0.0029°C per year and comparably low R² values. These trends are statistically insignificant and suggest no robust longterm warming or cooling. The observed variability is more likely stochastic, potentially masking finer-scale trends such as heatwave frequency or seasonal anomalies, which require higher-resolution temporal data for accurate detection [64, 65].

Drought Trends and Standardized Precipitation Anomalies

Drought dynamics were evaluated using Standardized Precipitation Anomalies (SPA) from 1982 to 2022 Figure 4. SPA values, with positive indicating above-normal and negative indicating below- normal precipitation, revealed marked shifts over the study period. From 1982 to 1990, SPA values hovered near zero, suggesting relatively stable conditions. However, between 1990 and 2000, a trend toward negative SPA values indicated increasing aridity, despite isolated wet years. The period from 2000 to 2010 saw further intensification, with most years experiencing below-average rainfall and persistent meteorological drought conditions.

Between 2010 and 2022, drought severity increased substantially, with 2022 identified as the driest year on record. SPA values during this period remained consistently negative, highlighting the duration and severity of drought conditions. These findings suggest a shift toward increasing aridity, likely influenced by regional expressions of global climate change. The convergence of irregular rainfall patterns, weak temperature trends, and escalating drought risk poses serious implications for water resources, agriculture, and socio-economic stability. These results underscore the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies for climate resilience in the Potwar Plateau.

Impacts of Rainfall on Agricultural Productivity in the Potwar Plateau

Rainfall variability is a decisive factor influencing maize productivity in the Potwar Plateau, where agriculture is largely rainfed and aligned with the monsoon season. Maize yields are particularly sensitive to water availability during the vegetative and reproductive stages. Station-specific data underscores this sensitivity: in Chakwal, optimal yields occur within a narrow rainfall range of 200-360 mm. Exceeding this threshold leads to waterlogging, which hinders root respiration and compromises productivity [38]. In Jhelum, yields peak around 450 mm, but excessive runoff contributes to topsoil erosion, depleting soil fertility. Kamra shows a slightly wider optimal range of 200-440 mm, while Rawalpindi requires approximately 680 mm annually 270 mm during the vegetative phase and 200 mm during the reproductive stage [7,66].

These spatially variable thresholds illustrate in Fig 5, that how even marginal deviations in rainfall whether excess or deficit adversely affect soil moisture, nutrient availability, and crop physiology. Extremes such as droughts reduce evapotranspiration and hinder growth, while intense rainfall events erode soil and disrupt nutrient cycles [67]. Thus, aligning agronomic practices with localized precipitation regimes is imperative. Adaptive strategies, including precision irrigation, soil moisture conservation, and resilient cropping calendars, are essential to mitigate yield volatility and enhance food security in a changing climate [68].

Heatwave Impacts across Sectors in the Potwar Plateau

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves have escalated across the Potwar Plateau, with severe implications for human health, ecological stability, and economic activities. Heat stress increases the incidence of heatstroke, dehydration, and cardiovascular ailments especially among vulnerable populations such as outdoor laborers, the elderly, and children. Urban centers like Rawalpindi and Islamabad suffer from pronounced urban heat island effects due to dense construction and limited green cover, amplifying health risks. Power outages during peak energy demand restrict access to cooling systems, exacerbating vulnerability [69]. Simultaneously, stagnant atmospheric conditions during heatwaves elevate ground-level ozone and particulate concentrations, worsening respiratory ailments, particularly in marginalized urban communities. Environmental consequences are equally concerning: rapid glacier melt reduces freshwater availability, while ecosystem stress accelerates biodiversity loss [70]. In agriculture, prolonged heat events diminish soil moisture and impair crop productivity, particularly for wheat and maize. This frequently compels farmers to liquidate livestock prematurely, triggering economic instability. These stressors interact with erratic rainfall patterns, compounding systemic risks [71].

As depicted in Figure 6, the impacts extend beyond the direct encompassing socioeconomic disruptions such as food price inflation, rural-to-urban migration, and infrastructure deterioration. The interconnected nature of these effects calls for multi-sectoral adaptation strategies that prioritize both mitigation and resilience- building [72].

Socio-Economic and Environmental Impacts of Drought in Northern Pakistan

Drought has emerged as one of the most persistent and damaging climate-related threats in northern Pakistan, particularly across the rain-dependent landscapes of the Potwar Plateau. Declines in seasonal precipitation, combined with rising temperatures, have severely curtailed crop yields and farm incomes. The resulting economic distress is particularly acute for subsistence farmers who lack financial buffers or alternative livelihoods [73]. Livestock mortality, driven by inadequate forage and water, further erodes household resilience. Beyond agriculture, drought constrains hydropower generation by reducing river discharge, thereby compounding energy shortages and unemployment. Water scarcity also affects hygiene and sanitation, leading to increased disease incidence and reduced labor productivity [74]. Environmentally, drought accelerates land degradation through processes such as erosion, desertification, and vegetation loss. Forest fire risks rise, and aquatic ecosystems face ecological collapse due to diminished flows [75].

Social impacts include rural displacement and mounting pressure on urban infrastructure, leading to overcrowding, housing shortages, and heightened socio-economic disparities [76]. Figure 7 captures the systemic effects of drought and its linkage to broader climate extremes. Cumulatively, these trends highlight the need for integrated water resource management, sustainable land-use planning, and community-based resilience mechanisms [77].

Adaptation to Extreme Rainfall in the Potwar Plateau

As rainfall patterns grow increasingly erratic under the influence of climate change, adaptive responses in the Potwar Plateau must focus on enhancing both agricultural stability and infrastructure resilience. The region’s semi-arid environment makes it particularly vulnerable to both flash flooding and prolonged dry spells. Rain-dependent crops such as maize, wheat, and barley are now at heightened risk of yield failure due to these fluctuations [59]. To mitigate these impacts, adaptive strategies are being adopted at multiple levels. Community-based rainwater harvesting via rooftop systems and traditional infiltration pits improves water availability during dry periods. Soil conservation techniques such as terracing, contour plowing, and vegetative cover reduce erosion and help stabilize yields. Crop substitution with drought- and heat-tolerant varieties, along with water-saving irrigation technologies like drip systems, further enhance productivity under variable conditions [78].

Urban adaptation includes investment in storm water drainage, green infrastructure, and flood management systems to reduce the impacts of heavy rainfall events. As shown in Figure 8, these scalable interventions form a robust framework for enhancing resilience. Combined, they not only protect agricultural livelihoods but also fortify physical infrastructure and public health systems [79].

Adaptation to Heatwaves in Northern Pakistan

Northern Pakistan has witnessed a notable increase in the frequency and duration of heatwaves, particularly during the pre-monsoon season. These events pose growing challenges to public health, agriculture, and water security. Adaptation demands a coordinated approach across urban and rural landscapes that integrates infrastructure, behavioral change, and policy innovation. Urban heat adaptation involves a suite of cooling interventions [63]. These include high-albedo pavements, expanded tree cover, green roofs, and the creation of blue-green spaces to mitigate the heat island effect. Passive cooling designs such as wind catchers, reflective coatings, and natural ventilation can substantially improve thermal comfort, especially in low-income housing. Establishing public cooling centers and early warning systems is vital for safeguarding vulnerable groups [80].

Table 7:A comprehensive framework to address the challenges of heatwaves.

Table 7 outlines actionable solutions, including Heat Action Plans (HAPs) with protocols for emergency response, awareness campaigns, and targeted outreach to at-risk populations. In agriculture, farmers can adjust planting calendars, adopt heat-tolerant crop varieties, and optimize irrigation timing to manage heat stress. These combined interventions support both short-term coping and long-term resilience to extreme thermal conditions [104].

Adaptation to Drought in the Potwar Plateau

Drought adaptation in the Potwar Plateau is increasingly urgent due to shifting precipitation patterns, declining glacial runoff, and rising evapotranspiration. These changes threaten water security and undermine the sustainability of rain-fed agriculture [105]. Key strategies include enhancing water storage through small-scale reservoirs and rooftop harvesting, while promoting moisture-retaining practices such as mulching and drip irrigation. Crop diversification and the use of drought-resistant cultivars are also critical to stabilizing food production [106]. Community-level governance, including equitable water distribution and real-time early warning systems, is essential for responsive and inclusive drought management. Figure 9 conceptualizes vulnerability to drought as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. [107].

Strengthening adaptive capacity requires investments in infrastructure, farmer education, and financial instruments that incentivize sustainable practices. At the policy level, afforestation, watershed management, and subsidy reform can reinforce ecological buffers and build long-term resilience [108]. Institutional support, combined with community empowerment, will be central to mitigating future drought risks and sustaining livelihoods in the Potwar Plateau [109].

This study presents strong evidence of intensifying climate extremes in the Potwar Plateau (PPP), underlining its vulnerability to rainfall variability, heat stress, and prolonged droughts. From 1982- 2023, annual rainfall showed high inter-annual variability but a distinct upward trend post-2015, peaking anomalously in 2021. Attock recorded its highest rainfall in 2021 (R² = 0.2733), with similarly weak but positive trends in Chakwal (R² = 0.122) and Islamabad (R² = 0.1225), highlighting low predictability and the need for localized rainfall forecasting systems [110, 111]. Despite increased rainfall, water security remains fragile due to storage inefficiencies and inequitable distribution. Temperature trends were statistically insignificant across all stations, including Attock (-0.016°C/year, R² = 0.0453) and Jhelum (-0.0013°C/year, R² = 0.0003), suggesting erratic fluctuations. However, sub-seasonal heatwave events have intensified, affecting evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and critical crop phases like flowering and grain-filling [112].

Drought analysis using Standardized Precipitation Anomalies (SPA) reveals worsening aridification since the 1990s, with 2022 as the driest year. The 1999-2002 drought cut rainfall below 60% of normal, triggering severe crop losses and food insecurity. Threshold- sensitive impacts were clear maize yields in Chakwal dropped when rainfall deviated from 200-360 mm, while Rawalpindi required 680 mm, with 270 mm and 200 mm during vegetative and reproductive phases, respectively [113,114]. Heatwaves, although not reflected in mean temperature trends, have increased in frequency and impact. Urban centers like Islamabad now face health and infrastructure stresses when temperatures exceed 40°C, with electricity demand surging over 25% and crop losses up to 30%. These risks are exacerbated by limited early warning systems and poor cooling infrastructure [115,116]. Socio-economic impacts are severe: drought years reduce agricultural income by over 40%, while livestock losses and hydropower shortfalls exacerbate rural hardship. Environmental degradation river flow decline, biodiversity loss, and forest fires further compounds the crisis.

Adaptation remains fragmented but promising. Rainwater harvesting, crop diversification, and drought-tolerant varieties have improved resilience some wheat strains now maintain yields with 20-30% less water. Drip irrigation and mulching enhance water-use efficiency by up to 45% [117-119]. In urban areas, pilot cooling strategies like reflective roofing have reduced temperatures by 2.5°C [33]. Heat Action Plans, modeled after Indian cities, can reduce heat-related mortality by 30%. Policy reform must focus on integrated watershed management, equitable distribution, and investment in small reservoirs and real-time monitoring, which could halve post-drought recovery time. Building institutional capacity, farmer training, and transparent governance will be key to long-term resilience [120,121] The development of municipal Heat Action Plans (HAPs), as trialed in select Indian cities, offers a template for protecting vulnerable populations. Such plans can reduce mortality rates by up to 30% during extreme heat events when combined with early warning alerts and accessible cooling centers.

At the policy level, adaptation must be both anticipatory and participatory. Water management reforms are essential. Given the declining glacial runoff and rainfall uncertainty, integrated watershed management and equitable water distribution must replace reactive allocation mechanisms. Investment in small-scale reservoirs and real-time monitoring infrastructure could reduce postdrought recovery time by over 50%. Equally important is improving institutional capacity training programs for farmers, subsidies for efficient technologies, and transparent governance systems are critical enablers of resilience.

The Potwar Plateau of northern Pakistan faces escalating climate challenges, including erratic precipitation, temperature anomalies, and frequent extreme events. From 1982 to 2015, precipitation generally declined, but an upward trend emerged post-2015, peaking in 2021. Notable increases were observed in Attock (R² = 0.2733), Chakwal (R² = 0.1220), and Islamabad (R² = 0.1225). However, low R² values across stations reflect high variability rather than clear linear trends. Temperatures showed minor declines, such as in Attock (-0.016°C/year, R² = 0.0453) and Jhelum (-0.0013°C/year, R² = 0.0003), with low explanatory power. The 1999 2002 drought reduced rainfall below 60% of the average, severely impacting agriculture. Crop sensitivity to rainfall was evident, particularly maize in Jhelum, where yields dropped outside the 450 mm rainfall range. Heatwaves have intensified water scarcity, reduced crop productivity, and worsened air quality, endangering food security. To build long-term resilience, adaptive strategies such as drought-tolerant crops, efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and early warning systems are essential. Without urgent, integrated climate action, the region’s socio-economic and ecological stability remains at significant risk..

Future recommendation

Future strategies for the PPP should prioritize refining climate models to accurately predict rainfall and temperature variations, enabling effective water management. Advancing heat-resistant agricultural practices and improving crop genetics are essential to mitigate extreme temperatures. Policymakers must focus on water storage solutions like small reservoirs to reduce dependence on erratic rainfall. Strengthening community-based adaptation and fostering collaboration between governments, communities, and scientists will ensure coordinated climate action. Ecosystem-based approaches, such as afforestation and wetland restoration, should also be implemented to counteract heatwaves and droughts while preserving environmental stability.

1. To provide a consistent supply of water and mitigate the consequences of drought, the research advises effective water management strategies such as drip irrigation, rainwater collecting, and small reservoirs.
2. The findings stress the need for farmers to adapt to changing climate patterns by using drought-resistant crops, adjusting planting schedules, and implementing soil conservation practices like contour plowing to boost productivity and food security.
3. As heatwaves intensify, urban areas like Rawalpindi and Islamabad must adopt cooling strategies, including more green spaces, reflective materials, and heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations.
4. The study highlights the need for cooling centers in vulnerable communities and improved emergency response protocols to manage heat-related health risks, especially in resource- limited areas.
5. Building agricultural resilience in the region requires diversified cropping systems and improved land-use practices to reduce crop failure, waterlogging, and erosion from extreme weather events.

1. Pakistan ought to make investments in integrated water management techniques, such as drip irrigation, small-scale reservoir construction, rainfall collection, and Indus River system optimization. In order to maintain agriculture and provide fair access to water, it is imperative to encourage water-efficient farming methods.
2. The government should promote drought-resistant crops, diversify cropping systems, and support research on heat- and flood-tolerant varieties. Techniques like contour plowing and terracing should also be encouraged to improve resilience to changing precipitation patterns.
3. Local governments should execute heat action plans (HAPs) in cities such as Rawalpindi and Islamabad, which include extending green spaces, employing reflecting materials in construction, and building cooling facilities. To mitigate the urban heat island effect, long-term planning should include green infrastructure, such as cool roofs and urban woodlands.
4. To mitigate drought impacts, early warning systems providing real-time weather, soil moisture, and water data should be implemented. Additionally, government incentives for drought-tolerant farming technologies and community-based water management can enhance resource efficiency.
5. To reduce heatwave health hazards, invest in emergency medical services, especially in susceptible locations. Public health campaigns should raise knowledge about climate adaptation and its socioeconomic consequences, as well as promote sustainable water usage, hydration, and heat stress reduction.

Ethical approval: Not Applicable. Consent for publication: Not Applicable. Availability of data and materials: Not Applicable

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

W.Q. conceived and designed the study, supervised the research work, guided data interpretation, reviewed and edited the manuscript, and managed all correspondence during submission. A.R. conducted the main research work, performed data collection and analysis, and drafted the initial manuscript. I.A. assisted with data analysis and visualization, contributed to software and validation, and participated in manuscript review and editing. N.U.A. collected biological samples, conducted laboratory experiments, interpreted lab results, and provided technical resources. A.Rh. carried out fieldwork, contributed to disaster risk assessment, supported methodology development, and participated in manuscript review.

This research was funded by two key sources. The Shanxi Basic Research Program provided Grant No. 20220302121279. The Ministry of Education’s Youth Project of Humanities and Social Sciences also contributed funding under Grant No. 20YJCZH160.

We wish to extend our heartfelt appreciation to Dr. Tariq Shah for his invaluable guidance throughout the course of this project. We also acknowledge Mr. Syed Ghufran Hadier for his support and encouragement. Furthermore, we express our gratitude to Dr. Asif for his constructive advice during the writing and formatting phases.

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